Suematsu Lab: 第13章　レジュメ

February 26, 2004

第13章　レジュメ

池室君の都合がつかないで、代わりに桐迫が担当します。
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各自プリントアウト願います。

企業分析入門　13章　株式分析
証券分析は多くの場合、ミスプライスされている証券を選び出すことを意識して実施される。それ以外にも、ある証券がポートフォリオ全体のリスクに与える影響や、その証券がポートフォリオの維持すべき性質に適合するかを評価することを目的としている。
証券分析は
　セル・サイド：個人投資家やプローカーサイドのアナリスト
　バイ・サイド：様々な機関のファンドマネージャーの下で働くアナリスト
によって行われる。

1 投資家の目標
いかなる特定の貯蓄者の投資目標も、所得や年齢、資産、リスク許容度、課税状況などによって左右される

2 株式分析と市場効率性
効率的市場仮説は厳密な意味では均衡を記述できないのである。均衡では、ちょうど証券分析に資源を投資するインセンティブが与えられるのに十分ないすプライスが生じていなければならない。
市場の効率性と財務諸表分析の役割
取引者は2つの方法で財務諸表の情報を消化し利益を上げることができる。
 新しく公表された財務諸表データを入手して即座にそれを解釈し、数分以内に取引をおこなうよう。
 企業を理解することによって、他のニュースが到来したときにすぐにそれを解釈できるように、より望ましいかたちでアナリストを配置しておく。
市場の効率性と経営者の財務報告戦略
市場の効率性の程度は、経営者の投資化集団に対する情報伝達の態度にも影響を与える。
経営者が有効にできる情報伝達手段は経営者の信頼性だけでなく、投資家集団がどの程度現状を理解しているかにも依存する。
市場の効率性に関する実証結果
効率性に関する議論は色々とあるが、ほとんどの研究者に受け入れられ手いる教訓は存在する。
 証券市場は公で入手できる情報を反映しているだけでなく、情報が公表される前にそれらの情報の多くの部分を予想しているのである。
 大型株のミスプライスの程度は比較的小さいと言える。
3 ファンド・マネジメントの方法と証券分析
積極的運用と消極的運用
積極的運用：ミスプライスされている証券を識別するにあたって証券分析に大きく依存する
消極的運用：インデックスや産業セクターのパフォーマンスに対応するポートフォリオを保有しようとして証券分析や銘柄入れ替えのコストを回避する。
定量的分析と伝統的なファンダメンタル分析
テクニカル分析
ファンダメンタル分析
定量分析：PER、PBR、回帰分析、プロビット分析など
公式の評価と非公式の評価
アナリストは自分の長期的な利益予測と支配的な予測水準を比較し、買いや売りを推奨することができる。
他の人が認識していない情報をもとに売り買いの判断をすることもできる。
4 総合的な証券分析のプロセス
分析対象の選択
市場が予測している内容
アナリストによる予測の提示
証券分析の最終的な生産物

5 財務諸表データと証券価格
利益や簿価は株価の重要指標である
一株あたりの利益と簿価で株価変動の3分の２は説明できる。
市場参加者は利益に含まれている情報の大部分を予測できる
市場参加者は財務諸表よりタイムリーに色々なところから情報を手に入れることができる。
財務諸表の詳細な内容も重要である
利益、簿価以外の内容も株価に反映されている。

輪読会メンバーの皆様

本日は、失礼致しました。
風邪（多分、鳥じゃないはず）におかされ、
フラフラしていたので、布団でゆっくり寝てました。

少し具合が良くなったので、ただいま参上。
PC画面が、揺れてる、揺れてる。。。笑

Posted by: もりぞー : February 27, 2004 04:21 PM

それはそれは

そういや、京都でも鳥インフルエンザが発生したらしですよ。

次回輪読会なんですが、月曜か水曜にしません？
水曜のよるから、嬢もキッシーも池室もヒロポソも僕もスキー&スノボに行ってるんで・・・スマソ

Posted by: きりせこ : February 27, 2004 08:10 PM

了解!
月、水どちらでも可です。

Posted by: もりぞー : February 28, 2004 01:46 PM

では水曜日にしましょう。
ヒロポソとか嬢も夜からスノボ＆スキーなので準備してきてくれていいですよ。

輪読の本とかは、僕の家に置いてくれていて構いませんし。

Posted by: きりせこ : February 28, 2004 09:10 PM

うーん、スキーも持ってきているから
京大まで行くのだるいなぁ（笑）
京都駅あたりで預けれるといいんだけど。
預けられると分かったら行きます。
うーん。。。

Posted by: ひろぽん : February 29, 2004 10:14 PM

＞ヒロポソ
確かにスキー持って大学まで来るのは大変やね・・・

では、来週の月曜にしましょう。

Posted by: きりせこ : March 1, 2004 09:24 PM

どうもありがとうございます。m(_ _)m

Posted by: ひろぽん : March 1, 2004 10:37 PM

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